18 Mar 2010
Talk is cheap. If you want to put your money where your mouth is on a big bet about the future, go to Long Bets.
Their tagline is: The Arena for Accountable Predictions.
This is something we need. Not only does it help people think about the long-term future in concrete terms, but it also emphasizes that we often buy into experts’ predictions about the future, without looking much into how believable those predictions might be. (See the great book The Black Swan for more on this.)
Back to Long Bets: “The purpose of Long Bets is to improve long–term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The Long Now Foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes.”