“The growing demand for oil is leading to a growing global conflict in which the Gulf War, the 9/11 attack, and the war in Iraq are just the first three skirmishes.”


22 Jun 2010

I keep running across experts who feel strongly that the world is headed for trouble—but they haven’t been heard. Here’s another to add to the list: Amos Nur, professor emeritus of geophysics at Stanford University.

On his page titled “Oil & War”, he writes:

Worldwide per-capita oil consumption is closely correlated with the standard of living. In developing nations like China and India increasing prosperity therefore requires increased per-capita oil consumption. However, oil is a finite resource whose production globally is about to begin to decline irreversibly. Consequently the growing demand for oil is leading to a growing global conflict in which the Gulf War, the 9/11 attack, and the war in Iraq are just the first three skirmishes. These skirmishes pale in comparison with the looming potential conflict over oil with China.

He’s been warning about peak oil since 1996. And he points out the fantasy that passes for analysis in mainstream circles: “Relying on the notion that market forces take care of shortages is a belief based on ideology and hope. The finitness of recoverable oil and gas reserves is fact.”

You can argue about how big that finite reserve is, but if you’re not even willing to talk about the finiteness, then I think you’re in fantasyland.

POST A COMMENT

Your email is never published nor shared. Required fields are marked *

*
*

bookshelf

books I've read on failure & grace

The World Without Us
The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man
Zeitoun
A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities That Arise in Disaster
Hell and High Water: Global Warming--the Solution and the Politics--and What We Should Do
The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl
The Tipping Point
Three Cups of Tea: One Man's Mission to Promote Peace... One School at a Time
The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization
Out of Poverty: What Works When Traditional Approaches Fail
The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1300-1850
Confessions of an Eco-Sinner: Tracking Down the Sources of My Stuff
Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future
The Geography of Bliss: One Grump's Search for the Happiest Places in the World


Mason's favorite books »

TAG CLOUD