failing gracefully » “The growing demand for oil is leading to a growing global conflict in which the Gulf War, the 9/11 attack, and the war in Iraq are just the first three skirmishes.”

I keep running across experts who feel strongly that the world is headed for trouble—but they haven’t been heard. Here’s another to add to the list: Amos Nur, professor emeritus of geophysics at Stanford University.

On his page titled “Oil & War”, he writes:

Worldwide per-capita oil consumption is closely correlated with the standard of living. In developing nations like China and India increasing prosperity therefore requires increased per-capita oil consumption. However, oil is a finite resource whose production globally is about to begin to decline irreversibly. Consequently the growing demand for oil is leading to a growing global conflict in which the Gulf War, the 9/11 attack, and the war in Iraq are just the first three skirmishes. These skirmishes pale in comparison with the looming potential conflict over oil with China.

He’s been warning about peak oil since 1996. And he points out the fantasy that passes for analysis in mainstream circles: “Relying on the notion that market forces take care of shortages is a belief based on ideology and hope. The finitness of recoverable oil and gas reserves is fact.”

You can argue about how big that finite reserve is, but if you’re not even willing to talk about the finiteness, then I think you’re in fantasyland.