13 Sep 2010
“World oil production will start to fall sometime during this decade, never to rise again,” writes Princeton University geologist Ken Deffeyes on his website, Beyond Oil.
Deffeyes is widely credited as the one who popularized the method developed by M. King Hubbert, a former Shell Oil geophysicist, who developed a method for trying to predict future oil production, based on production in the past.
Deffeyes predicted that the world’s conventional oil production would peak in 2005. He turned out to be right, although it’s too early to tell if this peak will turn out to be the all-time peak.