Hope for U.S. Oil: Where It Could Come From
10 Feb 2012
I have a long article on National Geographic News today about hope for a “great revival” of U.S. oil production—along with more sober assessments of how much the country might be able to boost production, and where it would come from.
Here are more details on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest outlook, published in Jan 2012, of where that additional oil production could come from, using data that I got from them that underlies their projections but that has not been published on their website or in their reports.
They foresee a sharp change in the decline of conventional oil fields in the lower 48 states—but not enough to make a significant boost in production, or prevent a downward slide later.
To get the production level up significantly would require a hearty dose of enhanced oil recovery, from pumping CO2 into fields to flush out recalcitrant fluids, as well as big efforts to frack more tight oil (aka shale oil) deposits, as well as deepwater fields.
And to put it in a longer-term perspective, here’s the whole history of U.S. crude oil production, along with the EIA’s latest projection.
